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* Consider this posting a brief review of back-testing the accuracy of using astronomy as a leading indicator. The following chart is a monthly chart of the USD/CAD exchange rate. The back-testing begins by using the hypothesis that the USD/CAD will have a major change in direction when Jupiter completes 50% of its declination degree cycle. The change in trend should last until each half cycle is completed. Jupiter has a 12 year declination cycle in which it moves south for 6 years then north for 6 years around the Sun.
* I have labeled the periods of Jupiter's maximum declination with the letters A, B,C, D. I have labeled the periods of Vesta's maximum declination with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. For easier viewing, I have also drawn horizontal lines on the declination indicators to show were maximum declination occurs.
The testing period starts November 1989, and lasts until February 2008. This will provide us with 4 data points of when Jupiter has reversed from reaching its maximum declination. These dates include:
1) November 9, 1989 -Dec 8, 1989 (Max North Declination @23.24 Degrees)
2) February 18, 1996- March 26, 1996 (Max South Declination @ -23.23 degrees)
3) September 15, 2001 – October 21, 2001 (Max North Declination @ 23.23 degrees)
4) December 28, 2007 – February 4, 2008 (Max South Declination @ -23.23 Degrees)
Expected price action:
· Price reverses direction November 1989
· November 1989 reversal lasts until February 1996
· February 1996 price reverses direction again and lasts until September 2001
· September 2001 price reverses direction again and lasts until December 2007
1) Did the USD/CAD have a major change in direction November 1989? NO. The USD/CAD had a major peak which occurred February 3, 1986 at 1.4497 and steadily declined until reaching 1.1228 on November 4, 1991. This major low occurred almost exactly two years after Jupiter’s Max north Declination was reached. Maximum north declination was reached during November 9, 1989 – December 8, 1989. During this period Jupiter’s longitude ranged from 91.78 – 94.17 degrees.
2) On the actual date of the first hypothesized price reversal (November 4, 1991), Jupiter was located at 150.64 degrees heliocentric longitude and 12.19 degrees northern declination. This longitude relationship of 150 degrees is known as a “quincunx.” The quincunx is considered to be a major aspect. 150 degrees is five-twelfths of the 360 degree ecliptic.
a. Was there any noticeable change in price behaviour after November 1989? The USD/CAD reached a low of 1.1650 on November 29th then rallied until Feb 13th 1990. It peaked at 1.2127 during February 1990 then continued on its downtrend until October 31, 1991.
b. What is the result? A minor reversal of 0.0477 took place. This would absolutely put you in a position to profit from the reversal hypothesis. However, price did travel lower than the November 29, 1989 low by .0422
c. The November 4, 1991 low which occurred 2 years after we would expect, marked a major reversal for the USD/CAD. The exchange rate rose 44.18% or +.4961 up to 1.6189 by January 21, 2002
3) Did the 1989 reversal last until February 1996? As mentioned earlier, price reversed in 1991 and this price reversal lasted until Jan 21, 2002.
a. Was there any noticeable change in price behaviour after February 18, 1996? Price moved sideways to slightly lower until November 1996 at which point price continued on its path upward.
b. What is the result? February 1996 did not mark a significant change in price behaviour. Jupiter’s maximum declination degree of 23.23 lasted from February 18-March 27, 1996. During this period, Jupiter’s Heliocentric Longitude ranged between 271.48 and 274.58
4) Did a major reversal in the USD/CAD occur September 2001? No. the major reversal high did not occur until 4 months later. It was on January 21, 2002 that the USD/CAD reached its all time high of 1.6189. From this point it declined 44.05% or -.7132 to reach a low of .9057 on November 7, 2007.
a. Was there any noticeable change in price behaviour during September 2001? A minor rally of 260 Pips occurred with the monthly close equal to 1.5772
b. Jupiter’s period of maximum northern declination began on September 15, 2001 and ended October 21, 2010. During this period, Jupiter’s heliocentric longitude ranged from 91.48 to 94.55 degrees.
c. Jupiter’s heliocentric longitude on January 21, 2002 (major reversal date) was 102.31 and declination was 22.91 (max declination = 23.23)
5) Did a major reversal in the USD/CAD occur December 28, 2007? No. The major reversal occurred one month earlier on November 7, 2007. The November 2007 reversal caused price to rise from 0.9057 to 1.3064 ending March 9, 2009. This increase of 44.24% or +.4007 certainly was a major reversal.
a. Was there any noticeable change in price behaviour during December 2007? The opening and closing prices for the monthly price action were almost the same value. Opening price was 0.9994, closing price was 0.9985
b. Jupiter reached maximum southern declination from December 28, 2007 until February 4, 2008. During this period, Jupiter’s heliocentric longitude ranged from 271.42 – 274.53 degrees.
c. Jupiter’s declination on November 7, 2007 was -23.11, and its heliocentric longitude was 267.28
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Now we will develop a new hypothesis in conjunction with the previous one. We will attempt to reach a higher degree of accuracy by viewing another celestial body which has orbital periods of smaller durations. The 12 year cycle of Jupiter works well for determining larger trends. However, Jupiter does not contain the exactitude we are aiming to find. Now we will view an Asteroid which is named “Vesta.” Vesta is the second largest asteroid in the belt and is also the brightest.
* One full heliocentric declination cycle for Vesta takes about 1298 days to complete. Note this is a 649 day half cycle for maximum south/north declination to be reached.
* For Vesta to complete an orbit of 360 degrees longitude around the sun, it takes 1,326 days or 3 years, 7 months, 18 days. Note each full cycle is broken into a half cycle of 663 days.
* The extension of the case study to view Vesta’s cycles will include specific dates surrounding confluence points with Jupiter’s max/min declination and longitude.
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We will begin by looking at the heliocentric declination degrees of Vesta during important USD/CAD turning points to determine if there is any confluence with Jupiter.
1) Where was Vesta during Jupiter’s period of maximum north declination which occurred between Nov 9, 1989 & Dec 8, 1989? Vesta was located between 316.78 - 325.31 degrees longitude and declination of between -19.52 and -17.54
2) Was there any significance during November 9, 1989 – December 8, 1989 involving Vesta’s longitude or declination? Yes, Vesta shared with Jupiter a planetary aspect of a sesquiquadrate angle. This means that Vesta was at a 135 degree angle from Jupiter. During this aspect, they were also on opposite sides of the Sun’s equator.
3) When did Vesta reach maximum declination regarding the 1989 time horizon? Vesta reached maximum south declination of -22.75 during the time periods of July 31, 1989 – August 6, 1989. During this time period, Vesta shared a Contra-Parallel relationship with Jupiter. A contra-parallel occurs when two planets (or celestial bodies) occupy the same degree within one degree of orbit, but have opposite declination.
4) Was there any significant change in price when Vesta reached its maximum declination during July 31 - August 6, 1989? No. The USD/CAD continued its downtrend until November 4, 1991.
5) Was Vesta at a significant declination or longitude degree during the dates surrounding November 4, 1991 USD/CAD low? Yes, Vesta’s heliocentric longitude was 135.44 degrees. This is a sesquiquadrate angle in relation to the Sun.
*After the period of maximum northern declination ended July 14, 2001, the USD/CAD does not react the next half cycle of max south declination which occurs March 16, 1993. It isn’t until the next cycle of declination that price reacts.
* On February 17, 1995 Vesta reaches maximum north declination. On this date it also shares a sesquiquadrate aspect with Jupiter. Sesquiquadrate is an angle of 135 degrees. During this angle both celestial bodies were on opposite sides of the Sun’s equator.
* On March 6, 1995 the USD/CAD reached a high of 1.4327 then dropped until reaching 1.3254 on November 6, 1996. Amazingly, November 3, 1996 marks the date when Vesta completed one half cycle of declination. It reached max south declination between November 3, 1996 & November 7, 1996. Jupiter and Vesta shared a parallel aspect during the November 3, 1996 to November 7, 1996 period of max south declination.
* After the November 6, 1996 bottom in the USD/CAD, price rallied up to a high of 1.5848 on August 27, 1998. Vesta reached max north declination on October 8, 1998. These dates are relatively close to each other. The trend switched from down to up beginning September 1998 when the USD/CAD began to sell-off.
* Finally, I would like to point out the November 7, 2007 low of 90.57. This low marked another key date region for the declination of Vesta. During September 22-28, 2007, Vesta reached maximum south declination. During these dates, Jupiter and Vesta shared a parallel aspect with each other. Following November 7, 2007 the USD/CAD rose significantly up to 1.3064 by March 9, 2009.
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Conclusion:
The USD/CAD does share trending characteristics with the direction of both Jupiter’s and Vesta’s declination. During periods of maximum declination, Jupiter and Vesta often shared a unique set of aspects or angles. The USD/CAD has had significant changes in its price direction which occurred on dates coinciding with changes in planetary declination. The probability of the USD/CAD changing direction on the exact date of maximum declination is low. However significant changes in direction occur within months or weeks of maximum declination occurring. This enables a trader to use declination degrees as a tool which forecasts periods of time when a change in direction is likely to occur. The simultaneous use of more than one declination tool as an identifier of turning points, has increased the exactitude of dates. This creates the possibility of even higher rates of accuracy if additional planetary declinations are used which have shorter declination cycles. It is also evident that price does not necessarily have to change direction with each half cycle of declination. Price often continues in one direction for a full cycle of declination, only to change direction after one whole cycle is complete. It is also important to notice that even though the maximum declination dates often don't mark exact turning points in this currency pair, the main portion of the currency price trend was nearing completion during these dates. It is important to also view the longitude degrees and geo-metric aspects. Several turning points occurred when Vesta and Jupiter shared a distinct angle. Additional USD/CAD turning points occurred when Jupiter was near important heliocentric longitude degrees. These degrees derive their importance from the work of W.D Gann. Finally, it is important to use declination and longitude degrees in conjunction with additional trading programs such as Elliott Wave.
