5 Year U.S. Treasury Notes-Daily

Click on Image to Enlarge

The following chart of 5 Year U.S. Treasury Notes includes an Elliott Wave count. I always conclude my decisions primarily on the E.W. count but I do not label them on the chart because the chart will often appear too busy and cluttered. From this chart it is possible to determine that Elliott Waves conclude at planetary confluence points.

The downward sloping black lines are the planetary fans which track heliocentric orbit of Earth. The upward sloping orange lines track the heliocentric orbit of mars. The declination indicators at the bottom are clearly labeled. On the declination indicators I have marked with black vertical lines where the 5 Year Treasury Note has major price reversals. It is evident from the "USD/CAD Case Study" that price does not have to reverse on the exact occurrence of maximum declination. Rather the time period surrounding maximum declination is a probable period of reversal.

The E.W. count on this chart indicates that 5 Year U.S. Treasury Bills have been in a downward correction phase since December 2008. Wave (A) is a Zigzag within a larger correction. An area of debate arises at the wave labeled "(A)." I will refer to what famous technician Constance Brown wrote in her 1999 book titled "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional".

--"As soon as many analysts see a Zigzag pattern develop and they have an opinion that the larger correction is incomplete, they hastily label the a-b-c internals of their first Zigzag as 'wave A within a larger correction.' Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. If your Zigzag internals are then called 'wave A within a larger correction,' you MUST be stating that the market will retrace the entire distance traveled by waves a-b-c of your Zigzag or greater. Why? Because an a-b-c that is labeled 'wave A in a larger pattern' must develop as a Flat or Expanded Flat. Period. No other option.....So if you don't think the entire distance will be retraced, the next move must be called an X wave".

If I understand correctly what she said, I should not have the primary labels "(A)" or "(C)" on this chart. However, I will keep them there because it makes things easier for me.

------------------------

Forecast

* 5 Year U.S Treasury Bills are expected to peak immediately and drop in value to 113.23

* The target date for this decline occurs between March 15, 2010- March 19, 2010.

* There is a strong possibility that the decline could extend until April 1, 2010.