Click on Image to Enlarge
In my last post I forecasted a decline of 23.62% for the gold mining index. I also noted that this decline should complete itself by June 18th. While the decline forecasted did occur, it did not however become complete by the specific date. At first glance it looks as though the price did not fall all the way down to my target. This however is not true because there is a disparity between my measured move and the subsequent price action that followed. You can see on the first DJUSPM posting that the closing price is 93.41. Price did not peak at this point (the measured high), it continued slightly higher up to 98.26. Personally, I prefer to use closing and opening prices for measured moves rather than highs and lows wherever possible. With this in consideration my measured move occurs 06/01/09 using the highest opening price. This price is 96.31. Previously I used the 93.01 open. Notice there is a difference of 3.30 between the two major price levels. Since my previous analysis failed to price in an additional 3.30 of price rise, it would naturally conclude that price would bottom atleast 3.30 higher than my forecasted low.
