Euro/Pound

Advantage Oil & Gas (AAV-TSX)

Click on Image to Enlarge

AAV-TSX (100% B wave or w3) RSI has broken above 70 and it looks as though 35 is currently holding. These RSI levels confirms the outlook for a wave3 up beginning. Wave 3 target is $9.97. Slight possible bearish implications on shorter term RSI. A break above down-trendline would negate bearish implications.

Saskatchewan Potash Corp (TSX-POT)

Click on Image to Enlarge
An extremely important high has already been put in place. Price is expected to travel up to $126.67 before sellers come in and push the stock down to $108.68. Buyers will then enter the scenario but it will serve only as a small upward bounce before the stock hits its major low at $84.81 around Feb 9, 2010. The second leg of the sell-off will be up for assessment after the first target is met.

Goldman/Sachs Commodity Index ($GSCI)

Click on Image to Enlarge

Price is currently supported by a 38.2% retracement and a 135 degree inflection level located at $493-$494. Wave count indicates the possibility of making an additional high up to 539.65. This remains the target unless there is a significant break below the current support level. If a break of $493 occurs then the secondary support target is 470. The GSCI is heavily weighted towards energy with 37.67% coming from Crude Oil and 13.66% coming from Brent Crude Oil. The second highest component is agriculture coming in at 14.44% including Wheat (3.29%), Corn (3.29%), Soybeans (2.47%), Sugar (2.41%).

Gold Gann Analysis

Click on Image to Enlarge

GLD calculations begin at the $41.02 low.

GLD expands and retracts by specific degrees. After the first target of 360 is met
the next target is 270 degrees higher. The third target is 180 degrees higher than the
second degree target. The pattern contracts by 90 degrees less than the previous expansion.

360 up (70.63)

630 Up (98.10)

810 UP (118.91)

If this pattern proves to be accurate then we can expect a long and time consuming correction (or crash) after price reaches 118.91. Another high should come in at 90 degrees higher than 810, after the downside target is reached. Upside target = 900 UP (130.06)

--------------------------------------------------------------
Downside price objectives display similar pattern characteristics.

1) 72.26 HIGH (WEEKLY) = 180 Down (56.25)

2) 100.44 HIGH (WEEKLY) = 270 Down (72.62)

3) 119.54 HIGH (WEEKLY) = 360 Down (79.80)

This pattern displays an expansion of 90 degrees per downside correction. The projected downside target is 79.80.

INDU Daily Target Update 3

Click on Image to Enlarge

Google Rally

Click on Image to Enlarge

INDU Daily Target Update 4

Click on Image to Enlarge

Price came up a bit short of the 7910 support level with price actually bottoming at 8087 as projected in previous post - https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkcoLQyPBt1l_t-tXu0XHv_4Hja-259zGw3hCUYsQ_71Lf-I-N6wVl_dOUdlLRsgR1rLXKcusiKnc97Oie1YIpVFzUEsFdkBcWExh92WiWak1EWmnDtA_b0tSmXSHe82l7qrknz8p0-laD/s1600-h/Dow+Jones+Correction.jpg

However, the rally to the projected price high still did occur. 9321 was the Dow target and the actual high came in at 9321 on 08/04/09. There exists a possibility of an additional rally up to 9473 but this is not certain. The immediate downside target for the Dow is 8850. Following a break below 8850, look for additional support at 8249.

FXC Update 4

Click on Image to Enlarge

FXC Update 3

Click on Image to Enlarge

AAPL Chart Update 3

Click on Image to Enlarge

DJUSPM Update (2)

Click on Image to Enlarge

In my last post I forecasted a decline of 23.62% for the gold mining index. I also noted that this decline should complete itself by June 18th. While the decline forecasted did occur, it did not however become complete by the specific date. At first glance it looks as though the price did not fall all the way down to my target. This however is not true because there is a disparity between my measured move and the subsequent price action that followed. You can see on the first DJUSPM posting that the closing price is 93.41. Price did not peak at this point (the measured high), it continued slightly higher up to 98.26. Personally, I prefer to use closing and opening prices for measured moves rather than highs and lows wherever possible. With this in consideration my measured move occurs 06/01/09 using the highest opening price. This price is 96.31. Previously I used the 93.01 open. Notice there is a difference of 3.30 between the two major price levels. Since my previous analysis failed to price in an additional 3.30 of price rise, it would naturally conclude that price would bottom atleast 3.30 higher than my forecasted low.

FXY Update (2)

Click on Image to Enlarge

The original wave count has been changed. Most noticeably is the 5 wave downtrend count. This has been changed because of the difference in chart patterns between the Yen spot price and Yen ETF price. What appears as wave 2 in my previous post is actually an impossible count when you look at a chart of the spot price. The Yen spiked to a high which is not visible in the previous post because OTC forex continues to trade long after the NYSE closes. Keep in mind that this Yen chart only includes the price action which occurs during regular NYSE trading hours. As for the corrective wave 2 labeling, it looks as though wave 2 has become more complex by adding in an additional abc structure of one higher degree. Naturally there is higher risk associated with trading this pattern because the original wave count has been compromised.

CME Group Daily Chart Update (2)

Click on Image to Enlarge

In my last posting regarding CME I noted the difficulty associated with determining a terminal price target. At the same time, evidence pointed towards an immediate decline towards $283 or $270. Price broke above my forecasted resistance level then began to oscillate within a $20 range for 15 trading days before finally breaking down towards the lower targeted levels. Naturally, since the analysis underestimated the high, it would overestimate the lower targets. This occurs because of the variability associated with measured price movements.

Solar Fun

Click on Image to Enlarge

SOLF has to remain above $5 for this upward move to remain possible. This enables an incredibly small stop loss for this trade. Given the volatility associated witht his type of resistance level. It would be wise to have a stop closer to $4 in order to avoid getting stopped out unecessarily. The December 7.50 or 5.00 calls are suitable for this trade.

Strike Symbol Last Bid Ask Theo Value OI Delta Theta
5.00 QFGLA 1.60 1.25 1.40 1.478 80 .6601 .0042
7.50 QFGLU 0.66 0.55 0.70 0.77 291 .4221 .0045
-----------------------------------------------------------

Solar Fun Update July 28, 2009

Strike Symbol Last Bid Ask Theo OI Delta Theta
5.00 .QFGLA 2.65 2.40 2.85 2.774 65 .8225 -.0040
7.50 .QFGLU 1.25 1.25 1.55 1.549 324 .5904 -.0059

United States Oil Fund

Click on Image to Enlarge

The first resistance level occurs at $36. If price can break above $36 then there is a 41.60 target for the USO. The October OTM calls are suitable for this price move. They have 96 days until expiration and are inexpensive. The $39 and $40 calls will only cost you between $1-$1.25 per 0.25 delta. This should result in about $900 profit for every $400 invested if the USO makes this final wave 5 before October expiration.

Strike Symbol Last Bid Ask Theo OI Delta Theta
39.00 .ubojm 1.25 1.15 1.25 1.275 6,044 .2776 -.0148
40.00 .usojh 1.00 0.95 1.05 1.06 5,951 .2419 -.0139

----------------------------------------------------------------------

USO Update July 28, 2009

Strike Symbol Last Bid Ask Theo OI Delta Theta

39.00 .UBOJM 1.40 1.45 1.55 1.478 5,783 .3582 -.0166

40.00 .USOJH 1.20 1.15 1.25 1.253 6,421 .3132 -.0155

----------------------------------------------------------------

USO Update August 3, 2009 (After Close)

Strike Symbol Last Bid Ask Theo OI Delta Theta

39.00 .UBOJM 2.45 2.40 2.50 2.588 5,827 . 4879 -.0210

40.00 .USOJH 2.05 2.00 2.10 2.211 6,626 .4369 -.0207

AKS Update #4

Originally Posted June 7, 2009

Click on Image to Enlarge

MMM Time Analysis #3

Click on Image to Enlarge

AAPL 10 Minute Chart-June 5, 2009

Click on Image to Enlarge

I have included a 10 minute chart which better shows the advance towards the time and price confluence. In retrospect it would of been a great trade to buy Apple at the open Monday following my recommendation, then sell the position June 4 or 5. Since we earlier established that time and price confluence is used in addition to an already existing trading program, this chart provides necessary information about execution. From a day-traders perspective how valuable was the analysis I provided? You would have avoided short-selling and looked for long momentum plays. Opening orders obviously provided the best opportunity, but again that is retrospect. Also, you would be looking to possibly get short at the recommended sell price. This is because it is expected to be a "reaction level". This is better judged if you have experience with level 2, NYSE specialist, or Nasdaq level 2 automated programs. From a position trade, there was much more opportunity. You could have held the equity throughout the week with an intention to sell based on date or price. Or you could have bought out of the money (or ITM) June call options @ or above the $140 (or higher based on buying power) level. Depending upon the price of delta, OTM or ITM options will provide different returns especially since you are buying a contract within the expiration month.
Pay close attention to the intraday price reaction to the red and green trendlines. Keep in mind that these are the same trendlines that are drawn on the daily charts.

AAPL Daily Chart Update

AAPL Daily Chart Update June 5, 2009

The 145.97 target was met June 5th. This has been a successful example of time and price confluence which I originally learned from a book written by Constance Brown. This book is titled "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional". The second factor included in the analysis is the Elliott Wave formation. If the count and Fibonacci projection are actually "reactive" then we should see progressively lower price action for the week ahead.

INDU Intraday Chart Update- 15 Min

Click on Image to Enlarge

Tuesday June 2 was the first day that price tested the projected resistance level. This is a 15 minute interval of the INDU which better shows the price action. The pullback following the test was good for about 170 points. In the days following, price rebounded back to the resistance level. For some reason, the intraday closing price at the end of Friday shows a slightly different price than that of the daily charts.

INDU Daily Target Update

June 7, 2009 Update- Daily Chart

Click on Image to Enlarge

It appears as though the resistance level for the Dow has been confirmed. The weekly closing price was the lower resistance target of 8763.

ADI Daily Chart Update

ADI Daily Chart

ADI Daily Chart

Divergence Charts & Cycle Analysis

REIT's VS U.S BANKS INDEX (DJUSBK)

---------------------------------------------------

NASDAQ VS U.S INSURANCE INDEX (DJUSIR)

NASDAQ VS U.S BANK INDEX (DJUSBK)

The divergence which is occurring within these charts point towards upcoming weakness that we will see within the broader markets. These charts illustrate that the banking sector acts as a leading indicator for the rest of the market.

--------------------------------------

Sector Cycle Rotation Analysis

(Leading, Middle & Laggard Groups Determined by Martin Pring)

June 07, 2009

The liquidity driven industry group; namely home construction and telecommunications which have not completed a final leg down (Mar 9 double bottom), have lagged in the recent rebound instead of living up to their reputation as leaders. Most notable is the performance of the Dow Jones U.S Restaurants & Bars Index (DJUSRU) which has rebounded 40% from the November 08 low and is only 17% below its all time high. When compared to the performance of technology (touted by media as being the top investment) we find that the Dow Jones U.S Technology Index (DJUSTC) is up 50% from its November low but still 51% below its all time high. On the other hand, liquidity driven industries which have completed a final capitulation low yet still rebounded less than its group category peers include airlines and utilities.

The middle cycle groups which tend to have their best performance half way through a bull market move have had a stronger rebound than that of the envisioned "leaders". The middle category includes retailers, manufacturers, healthcare and consumer durables. Better yet is the performance of the usually "lagging leaders" which include technology, commodities and commodity related equities. Contrary to the conventional business cycle, these late cycle leaders actually began the broader market recovery. Unlike the "leaders" which are liquidity driven, these "laggards" are earnings driven. With that in mind, it can be concluded that the recovery thus far has been driven by earnings rather than additional liquidity. This rally should have considerable difficulty being sustained after the speculation surrounding P/E ratios subsides.

FXY- Japanese Yen

Click on Image to Enlarge

DJUSPM (Gold Mining Index)

Click on Image to Enlarge

ADI Weekly and Daily Chart Analysis

Click on Images to Enlarge

ADI WEEKLY CHART

This is a great example of how computer screen "pixels" or resolution can change what we see on charts. Take a look at points "X" and "Y" on both the weekly and daily charts. The blue line on the daily chart clearly acts as a good indication of price resistance and support. When we take a look at points "X" and "Y" on the the weekly chart, it looks as though it could be redrawn in order to give a better example of support and resistance. At first glance it seems difficult to believe that this could be the same line in each chart, but that is how computer resolution can change the appearance of technical indicators as time frame is lengthened from a daily to weekly time frame.

ADSK 5TH Wave - Weekly Chart

Click on Image to Enlarge

This chart shows several possible inflection levels. My short trade will be signalled if price reaches 25.40 during the week that June 9th occurs.

ADBE Weekly Chart

Click on Image to Enlarge

This weekly chart of ADBE shows the possibility of a 5th wave decline. There is currently a weekly close above the 38% ret level so it seems unlikely that it will hold at this point. It is much better to wait until the 50% level is tested before short positions are entered.

CME Group -Daily Chart

Click on Image to Enlarge

It looks as though the CME equity is currently going to end its wave cycle. With wave 5 being extended, it is difficult for me to interpret where it is going to end. I am able to measure a Fibonacci extension target which projects a short term top at $322. The first target for the decline is $283 (38.2% ret). These regression lines have also been drawn without the assistance of a regression tool.

INDU Daily Target Including Update

Click on Image to Enlarge

The Dow has an 8763-8772 inflection high target. It is expected that this target should put in a short term high in the DOW. The wave count determines that wave iv of III will be complete at this level. It is expected that a decline should follow the projected rally up to 8772. This decline is not expected to fall below 7500.

AMGN Triangle Breakout

Click on Image to Enlarge

Note- All the uptrending and downtrending lines (colour red) are geometrically parallel to each other and have been drawn without the assistance of a regression tool.

AAPL Daily-Chart Analysis

Click on Image to Enlarge

The regression lines that are drawn in this chart have been drawn without the assistance of a regression tool. Following the 145.97 inflection it is expected that price should decline back to the $120 level in order to test the 38.2% retracement low.

MMM Time Analysis #2

Click on the Following Charts in Order to Enlarge
#2

MMM Time Analysis #1

Click on Image to Enlarge

There will be 4 charts of MMM included in this posting series. The following analysis is being completed with the knowledge learned from a book written by Constance Brown, entitled "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional. The author has discovered that time and price (here-after referred to as T&P) have an amazing confluence which can provide insight into different trading techniques. Naturally it would be unwise to trade from the T&P signal alone. However, when used as a component of a trading program, T&P analysis can assist with determining dates of superior importance. Three of the following four charts will provide analysis on historical price action in order to assist if you choose to apply it yourself. With the remaining chart I will attempt to determine a future T&P confluence. This forecast will be updated.

AKS Update #3

Click on Image to Enlarge

May 30th, 2009

The third wave of one larger degree was the correct interpretation for AKS. Although its wave 2 did go much further down than what I had expected. The minimum target has been met and the next target has been lowered from 18.53 down to 17.63.

FXC Update

Click on Image to Enlarge

May 30, 2009

My last post on the CAD I was calling for a rally up to 0.90USD. What I suspected to be wave 2 ended up being the final leg down for the decline. Amazingly, my Fibonacci target of 0.90 ended up being fulfilled even though the wave count was incorrect. June 30- July 7 are the important T+P confluence dates. Again on July,22 and 23 important time and price confluence dates arise. As for the rally, $97.19 remains the Fibonacci target, or 1.02 USD/CAD. A significant pullback in the CAD is expected from this level. At this time it is expected that this pullback would be corrective in nature and the longer term target for the CAD would be well above par with the USD.

ARE Update

Click on Image to Enlarge

May 30, 2009

Similar to AYE, ARE did not have wave 3 of one larger degree. There was however a $10 rally off of the Fibonacci inflection level. This rally failed to break above previous highs and was soon retraced.

AYE Update

Click on Image to Enlarge
May 30, 2009

AYE did not have wave 3 of one larger degree. Its wave structured turned out to be corrective in nature. Following the Fibonacci inflection level, there was a minor $4 rally but it did not break out to new highs. In my posting, "Volume Characteristics Very Bullish"; I noted that this rally would not be broad based. I overlooked the cyclical nature of the market. Commodities and commodity related equities would begin rallying during the later stages of a bull market. Since the bull was in its infant stages during the recommendation, it was simply too early to buy a stock like AYE.

Google Inc Update

Click on Image to Enlarge

May 30, 2009

The original forecasted wave 3 turned out to be a corrective elongated B wave. Wave 3 is targeted to end at $424.32. Price and time confluence for GOOG is as follows: June 9, June 17, and June 23 X 2. Price action surrounding June 23 is more important the the other days due to a higher number of P+T confluence.

Update of "Volume Characteristics Very Bullish"

Click on Image to Enlarge
May 30, 09

In a previous post I gave forecasts for the following symbols:

1) NYX

2) GOOG

3) AYE

4) ARE

5) FXC

6) AKS

7) AAPL

Today I will update these original forecasts with the exclusion of AAPL. The AAPL update has already been posted due to the trade recommendation occurring on a small time frame.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

NYX- Original forecast was given Nov 17,08 on a video which can be viewed on youtube by going to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14XTZvlZEVU NYX commentary begins at 4:37 into the video. The original price recommendation was purely based on Fibonacci price levels. Price came up short of the original target but the rally up to $30 still occurred. This rally created a perfect 5 wave sequence.The analytical work was updated Jan 21,09 with the development of this Elliott Wave pattern which indicated the Fibonacci inflection level at price $15.62 did not have to be met prior to the stock having a significant rally. Wave 3 of one larger degree implied that the $16.33 (11/21/08) low should remain the ultimate low and price should begin a marvelous rally up to $34.32 or $40.01. Subsequent price action shows that price broke below the hypothesized wave 1 low thus negating the wave structure. Price traveled to a low of $14.52 on March,06,09 ($1.10 below the Nov 17th, 08 price) and has since risen up 206% or +$15.48 to close the week at an even $30.

AKS Update #2

Click on Image to Enlarge

6 trading days ago I calculated the mean of AKS as $9.13. This price was derived from the closing price taken over 38 (n) days. The decision of using 38 as a base period was determined through the development of the wave structure. Since we are attempting to trade a wave 3, the time period of wave 1 development is used due to the natural link of impulsive waves.

The price consolidation within the box occurs over 6 days and is expressed in 60 minute bars. The price resistance occurs at $10 and the support level is $9.35. 0.82 is the 50% midpoint between these two levels.

10 or 9.35 +/- 0.82 = 9.175

Our calculated mean was inaccurate by 0.045 over the past 6 trading days. This serves as evidence that when a mean is derived from a non random time period, it can have an implicit role with price development.

Apple Inc 2- Pre-market Trading

Click on Image to Enlarge

The original 15 minute time frame has been extended to 60 minutes due to the additional data from after-hours trading. Here we can see a better measurement of the AAPL rally with the new after hours low included into the calculation.
`

Apple Inc

Click on Image to Enlarge

Apple Inc (AAPL-NYSE) . The upward 5 wave sequence which all of these stocks share, occurs on a daily time frame, AAPL on the other hand occurs on a 15 min time frame. From the price action occurring 1/15/09 we are able to project a minimum rally up to 86.74. This remains as a sufficient target unless price goes below 80.06.

---------------------------

UPDATE

AAPL Sell stop low should have been adjusted to $76.11 Rather than $80.06. Not visible on the chart above is the pre-open trading in AAPL. Using the pre-open low would avoid being stopped out unnecessarily.

AK Steel

Click on Image to Enlarge

AK Steel Holding Corp (AKS-NYSE) - AKS is currently supported by a 50% retracement value located at $9.13. A standard deviation of 1.618 is applied to a look back period of 38 days and we find that AKS is also supported by its mean of $9.13. This stock is down 87% from its 52 week high of $73.07. The first upside target is $14.68 and the second target is $18.53. Notable is the volume in wave “v” of 1. The last time this stock went from $10-$13 the volume was enormous; it was 55% higher than its 10 week average. This indicates that there were a vast number of longs waiting to sell into the rally, and then new buyers gladly took the shares off their hands. Most of the frustrated longs who want to sell between the $10-$13 region have already done so. As such, there should be very little resistance until AKS reaches the first target of $14.68 or the secondary target of $18.53

Currency Shares Canadian Dollar TR

Click on Image to Enlarge

Currency Shares CDN Dollar Trust (FXC-NYSE) - The FXC is being used as a tool of confirmation. Any divergences between the USD/CAD and the S&P 500 should be considered as a major warning. It is unknown for how much longer this relationship will give reliable signals. It appears as though the CAD will benefit considerably from rising U.S. markets. The FXC is currently supported by a 61.8% retracement value located at 79.88. All daily closing prices have respected this level thus far. Notably is the development of a 2 day Japanese Candlestick pattern known as a “hammer”. The confirmation day following the hammer is sufficient to label this pattern as such. When we apply a standard deviation of 1.618 to a look back period of 28 days we see the FXC supported by its lower deviation of $79.45. The upside target for the FXC is 90.08.

Alexandria Real Estate

Click on Image to Enlarge

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc (ARE-NYSE) - ARE is currently supported by a 38.2% retracement value located at $53.79. A standard deviation of 1.618 is applied to a look back period of 32 days and we find that ARE is the most expensive stock that is included in this edition of TTS. This equity is currently $4.42 above its mean. The first upside target is $83.85 and the second target is $91.66. The volume development in ARE is almost identical to that which we see in AYE